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本文讨论了卫生经济预测方法的选择条件,并通过实例阐述了预测方法的具体运用。笔者认为,在选择各种趋势预测模型时,可根据实践工作经验、实际数据特征、时间序列图形、趋势值误差比较等四个方面综合考虑。同时,还应注意随时对趋势模型进行修正,并对预测结果进行必要的调整,以减少误差,提高预测结果的精确度。
This article discusses the selection criteria of the health economic forecasting method, and explains the specific application of the forecasting method through examples. The author believes that when selecting various trend forecasting models, it can be comprehensively considered in terms of practical work experience, actual data features, time series graphs, and trend value error comparisons. At the same time, attention should also be paid to correcting the trend model at any time and make necessary adjustments to the forecast results to reduce errors and improve the accuracy of the forecast results.