针对突发事件有效方案生成问题,从案例匹配和方案生成两个角度出发,提出一种基于证据推理的考虑总体优势度的应急决策方法.首先,依据检索方法得到源案例与目标案例的相似度,并获取应急方案的历史实施效果和当前实施效果;然后,通过证据推理合成应急证据,进而计算案例的总体优势度来确定最有效的案例;最后,通过一个煤矿事故应急决策案例验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性. In order to solve the problem of effective scheme generation for emergencies, a method of emergency decision considering the overall dominance based on evidence reasoning is proposed from two aspects of case matching and scenario generation.Firstly, the similarity between the source case and the target case is obtained according to the retrieval method , And obtain the historical implementation effect and the current implementation effect of the emergency plan; then, through the evidence synthesis of emergency evidence, and then calculate the overall dominance of the case to determine the most effective case; Finally, through a coal mine accident emergency decision case validation The feasibility and effectiveness of the method.