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超级债务周期除受到人口、技术影响外,还更直接受到金融创新导致的信用体系发展这一制度因素的影响。世界信用体系,大致经历如下转变:从商业信用发展出银行信用与政府信用;从金属货币到法定货币;从银行体系发展到影子银行体系。这导致了信用与债务的扩张。根据债务与经济增长的关系,大致可以将超级债务周期划分为:高增长期、缓和期、泡沫期与衰退期。本文还对美国与日本战后的超级债务周期进行了分析。
In addition to being affected by population and technology, the super-debt cycle is more directly affected by the institutional factor of credit system development caused by financial innovation. The world credit system has undergone the following changes in general: the development of commercial credit from bank credit and government credit; from the metal currency to the legal tender; from the banking system to the shadow banking system. This led to the expansion of credit and debt. According to the relationship between debt and economic growth, the super-debt cycle can roughly be divided into: high growth period, easing period, bubble period and recession period. This article also analyzes the post-war super-debt cycle in the United States and Japan.