当前,在旧的增长模式尚未完全出清的背景下,中国经济尚处于除旧布新、孕育新的增长动力和优化结构的过程中,更可能的形态是总量相对稳定下的窄幅波动与结构优化。2017年以来,中国多项经济数据有所回暖:不仅经济增长总量连续同比上升,消费、出口贸易等细项数据也出现连续改善。基于此,关于中国经济是否即将开启一轮“新周期”的讨论也随之展开。对此,笔者认为,一方面国内并不具备能够从结构上显著影响经济增长的条件和因素, At present, under the background that the old model of growth has not yet been completely cleared up, China’s economy is still in the process of replacing old cloths with new growth drivers and optimizing structures. The more likely pattern is the narrow fluctuation and structural optimization with a relatively stable total volume . Since 2017, many economic data in China have picked up: not only the total economic growth has continued to rise year-on-year, but also the continuous improvement of such detailed data as consumption and export trade. Based on this, the discussion on whether the Chinese economy is about to open a “new cycle” will follow. In this regard, I believe that on the one hand the country does not have the conditions and factors that can significantly affect the economic growth from the structure,