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本文通过理论和实证分析法,基于1997-2013年的山东省农产品出口额和人民币实际有效汇率的年度数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验分析了人民币汇率变化与山东省农产品出口贸易的关系。估计结果表明,农产品出口贸易受人民币汇率的影响,当期人民币升值会使山东省农产品出口额减少,在上述分析基础上,给出了山东省应对人民币升值的对策建议。
Based on the annual data of Shandong agricultural exports and real effective exchange rate of Renminbi from 1997 to 2013, this paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Renminbi and the export of agricultural products in Shandong by unit root test and co-integration test. The estimated results show that the export trade of agricultural products is affected by the exchange rate of RMB, and the current appreciation of RMB will reduce the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province. On the basis of the above analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions on how to deal with the appreciation of RMB are given.