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根据上海市1978—2011年的居民消费以及社会保障支出等数据分析,发现上海市社会保障支出水平和社保支出弹性都很低;上海居民消费整体处于下降的趋势,居民消费支出弹性更低。上海居民实际储蓄率大于最优储蓄率。协整检验结果表明,上海居民消费与社会保障支出存在长期稳定关系,收入不确定性对居民消费存在显著负面影响。论文提出了促进居民消费、完善社保制度的若干政策建议,包括加大社会保障投入、降低社会保障缴费率、制定有差别的社保费率、促进社保基金多渠道增值等。
According to the data of residents’ consumption and social security expenditure in 1978-2011 in Shanghai, it is found that the level of social security expenditure and social security expenditure in Shanghai are very low. The overall consumption of residents in Shanghai is in a downward trend and the expenditure elasticity of residents is lower. The actual savings rate of Shanghai residents is greater than the optimal savings rate. Cointegration test results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between household consumption and social security expenditure in Shanghai, and the income uncertainty has a significant negative impact on household consumption. The dissertation puts forward several policy recommendations to promote the consumption of residents and improve the social security system, including increasing social security investment, reducing the social security contribution rate, developing differentiated social security premiums and promoting the multi-channel value-added of social security funds.