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通过对甘孜－玉树断裂带上近代地震的震级、震中位置和地震地表破裂的空间展布特征的研究，采用Ｎｉｓｈｅｎｋｏ和Ｂｕｌａｎｄ（１９８７）发展的“特征地震复发时间通用分布”概率模型，即“ＮＢ”模型，对甘孜－玉树断裂带各段落未来５０ａ内强震趋势进行了估计。根据研究结果识别出，未来５０ａ内本断裂带内马尼干戈断裂段具有强震复发的高危险性，当江断裂段强震复发的可能性也不能排除，这为地震中长期预报提供了重要依据
Based on the study of the magnitude, epicentral location and the spatial distribution of the earthquakes on the Ganzi-Yushu fault zone, the probabilistic model of “general distribution of characteristic earthquake recurrence time” developed by Nishenko and Buland (1987), namely “NB ”Model, the trends of strong earthquakes in the next 50a of each section of the Garze-Yushu fault zone are estimated. According to the results of the study, it is recognized that the Mani-Gange fault in this fault zone in the next 50 years has high risk of recurrence of strong earthquakes and the possibility of recurrence of strong earthquakes in the Yangtze River fault can not be excluded, which provides important information for medium- and long-term earthquake prediction in accordance with