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为了在做出决断上的可能应用,地震预报研究在能够被适当评估之前必须符合一定的标准。对于导致二元警报状态(有或无)的方法而言,要求包括:(1)对引起报警的可观测量的定量描述;(2)对所预报地震,包括时间、地点和震级范围的定量描述;(3)所有事先报警的文字证据;(4)完整的已预报过的地震清单;(5)完整的漏报地震的清单。VAN 技术(Varotsos and Lazaridou,1991;Varotsos et a1.,1996)还没被指定为是一种可检验的假设。由于它不满足判据(1)和(2),因此还不适宜于对之进行专门的评估。尽管电报是在自称的成功之前发出的,但是这些电报没有对所预报的事件给以详尽的说明,并且发表的所有统计评价混杂了许多事后的主观决定。一种候选的预报技术如果缺少与地震的统计验证关系,那么应当满足几项有理判据,包括:(1)候选前兆与所预报地震的地点间的合理关系;(2)对候选前兆观测量与应力、应变或与地震有关的其他量相关的某种证明;(3)有候选前兆的同震变化以及震前变化存在。VAN 技术不满足这些判据中的任何一项。
In order to make a decisive possible application, earthquake prediction studies must meet certain criteria before they can be properly evaluated. For methods that lead to a binary alarm status (with or without), the requirements include: (1) a quantitative description of the observable quantity that caused the alarm; (2) a quantitative description of the predicted earthquake, including time, place, and magnitude range ; (3) any prior written evidence of the alarm; (4) a complete list of predicted earthquakes; and (5) a complete list of missed earthquakes. VAN technology (Varotsos and Lazaridou, 1991; Varotsos et al., 1996) has not been specified as a testable hypothesis. Because it does not satisfy the criteria (1) and (2), it is not suitable to conduct a special assessment. Although telegrams were sent prior to what they described as success, these telegrams did not give an exhaustive account of the events foreseen and all the published statistical assessments mixed with many subsequent subjective decisions. A candidate forecasting technique that lacks statistical verification of the earthquake should satisfy several reasonable criteria, including: (1) a reasonable relationship between candidate precursors and the location of the predicted earthquake; (2) Some evidence of stress, strain, or other magnitude associated with an earthquake; (3) Coseismic changes with candidate precursors and pre-earthquake changes. VAN technology does not satisfy any of these criteria.