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本文运用我国2010年1月至2015年5月间CPI和PPI的月度数据,通过构建VAR模型、Johansen协整检验和VEC模型,实证研究CPI与PPI的长期均衡关系和短期波动现象。结果表明,CPI和PPI间存在长期均衡关系,同时存在短期波动关联,PPI的传导和CPI自身偏离长期均衡的共同作用导致了CPI的短期波动。最后,本文从扩大需求、吸收过剩产能、货币政策和财政政策等方面提出对策建议。
This paper uses the monthly data of CPI and PPI from January 2010 to May 2015 in our country and constructs VAR model, Johansen cointegration test and VEC model to empirically study the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term volatility of CPI and PPI. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between CPI and PPI, and at the same time there is a short-term fluctuation relationship. The joint action of PPI conduction and CPI’s own deviation from long-term equilibrium leads to short-term fluctuations of CPI. Finally, this article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of expanding demand, absorbing excess capacity, monetary policy and fiscal policy.