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基于中国经济发展情况的有关统计数据,实证分析人力资本积累、出口贸易模式与中国经济增长的关系。结果表明,人力资本与出口贸易部门的互动机制对中国经济增长有正面推动作用,表现为出口贸易部门的估摸效应递增,并扩大经济部门间生产效率差异从而刺激经济增长。一方面,尽管高附加值的商品与劳务在出口贸易方面的发展情况差强人意,但是依旧对其他经济部门产生了正外部性作用,体现为规模报酬递增,并扩大了各大经济部门的生产率差异。另一方面,人力资本相较于物质资本,对出口贸易发展的影响作用更为显著,是中国经济增长的重要推动力。因此,未来推动中国出口贸易战略转型的关键在于人力资本积累与高附加值产品及服务的良性互动。
Based on relevant statistics of China’s economic development, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship between human capital accumulation, export trade mode and China’s economic growth. The results show that the interaction mechanism between human capital and export trade department plays a positive role in promoting China’s economic growth. It shows that the effect of export trade is increasing, and the difference in production efficiency among different economic sectors is expanded to stimulate economic growth. On the one hand, despite the unsatisfactory development of high value-added goods and services in the area of export trade, they still exert a positive external effect on other economic sectors, showing an increase in returns to scale and widening the productivity gap among major economic sectors. On the other hand, compared with physical capital, human capital has a more significant effect on the development of export trade and is an important driving force for China’s economic growth. Therefore, the key to the strategic transformation of China’s export trade in the future lies in the benign interaction between the accumulation of human capital and high value-added products and services.