论文部分内容阅读
选取黄河三角洲高效生态经济区1998-2013年经济增长和水资源利用数据,通过构建VAR模型检验了变量平稳性和协整性,分析了广义脉冲响应及预测方差分解,对经济区水资源利用与经济增长的均衡关系和动态性进行实证研究。结果表明:黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的经济增长与生活用水量间存有长期均衡关系,而总量用水、工业用水和农业用水与经济增长间无长期均衡关系,这与当前人们对物质生活水平的需求急剧增加的现状相符;水资源利用对经济增长的脉冲响应滞后时间较长,而经济增长对水资源利用的脉冲响应滞后时间相对较短,且皆具有非渐进性。除工业用水外,经济增长对水资源利用的单位冲击响应累计值均为负值;除生活用水外,水资源利用对经济增长的单位冲击响应累计值均为负值。说明经济区经济发展中生活用水量上升态势显著,水资源是制约其经济发展的主要因素之一,而其它用水量随着经济发展得到了较好的控制;经济区的经济增长对水资源利用的预测方差贡献度较大,但水资源利用对其经济增长的预测方差贡献度较低。建议加强对生活节水新技术的投入、建立起合理的水资源利用虚拟交易机制,开发水资源保护体系。
The data of economic growth and water resources utilization in the efficient eco-economic zone in the Yellow River Delta from 1998 to 2013 were selected. The VAR model was used to test the stability and cointegration of the variables. The effects of generalized impulse response and forecast variance decomposition were analyzed. Economic growth and the dynamic balance of the relationship between empirical research. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and domestic water consumption in the high-efficiency eco-economic zone of the Yellow River Delta, while there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between total water use, industrial water use and agricultural water use and economic growth. This is in line with current people’s material life standards The demand for water is sharply increasing. The impulse response of water use to economic growth lags behind for a long time, while the impulse response lag time of economic growth to water resources utilization is relatively short, and all of them are non-progressive. In addition to industrial water, the cumulative impact of economic growth on the unit of water resources utilization is negative; in addition to domestic water use, the cumulative impact of water use on economic growth units are negative. This shows that the economic development in the economic zone has shown a significant increase in domestic water consumption. Water resources are one of the main factors restricting its economic development. Other water consumption has been well controlled with economic development. Economic growth in the economic zone has a negative effect on water resources utilization The contribution of forecasting variance is larger, but the contribution of water resources to forecasting economic growth is lower. Proposed to strengthen the investment in new technologies for water saving living, establish a reasonable virtual mechanism for the use of water resources, the development of water resources protection system.