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1987年,日本青木正和(Aoki)提出了一个结核病例发现覆盖率推算方法,1989年10月在一次国际结核病学术会议上,又报告了该法。但该推算方法能否成立?科学性如何?目前,包括设计者尚无一学者证实。本文应用监测资料进行验证性研究,并从理论上予以论证。1 资料和方法1.1 资料来源 采用湖南省益阳县1985～1990年结核病监测点的资料。1985年,该县进行了结核病流行病学随机分层整群抽样调查(14552人),涂阳患病241/10万。1990年涂阳患病率为143/10万。
In 1987, Japan’s Aoki proposed a method for estimating the coverage of TB cases, which was reported at an international conference on tuberculosis in October 1989. However, the calculation method can be established? How scientific? At present, including the designer yet a scholar confirmed. This paper uses the monitoring data to verify the research, and to be theoretically demonstrated. 1 Materials and Methods 1.1 Sources The data of TB surveillance sites from 1985 to 1990 in Yiyang County, Hunan Province were used. In 1985, the county conducted a randomized stratified cluster sampling survey of tuberculosis (14,552 people) and smear-positive people with 241,100,000. The prevalence of smear in 1990 was 143 / 100,000.