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针对传统汛期分期方法主观性较强的问题,提出以基于FAHP-Fisher的最优分割法进行汛期分期。并以张家庄水库流域为例,利用各月降雨径流的相关系数进行Fisher分割,定量确定汛期和非汛期;然后选取能够反映汛期水库流域洪水特征的旬降雨量、旬最大1日雨量、旬最大3日雨量及暴雨天数4项指标,采用FAHP法确定其权重系数;再利用Fisher对汛期进行详细划分。将分期结果与水库现行的分期方案进行对比并对该区域的气候成因进行分析,结果表明基于FAHP-Fisher的最优分割法应用结果可信,且适用性较强。
In view of the subjectivity of the traditional flood season staging method, the staging of flood season based on the FAHP-Fisher-based optimal segmentation method is proposed. Taking Zhangjiazhuang Reservoir Basin as an example, the correlation coefficient of monthly rainfall runoff was used to perform Fisher segmentation to determine the flood season and non-flood season quantitatively. Then, the daily rainfall which can reflect the flood characteristics of flood season reservoirs, the maximum rainfall of 1 day and the maximum of 3 Daily rainfall and stormy days 4 indicators, using FAHP method to determine the weight coefficient; then use Fisher to divide the flood season in detail. Comparing the staging results with the current staging scheme of the reservoir and analyzing the climatic causes in this area, the results show that the optimal segmentation method based on FAHP-Fisher has a credible application and strong applicability.