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人民币升值不大可能给美欧制造商注入活力,并使它们有能力对付聪明的中国对手。它们已被“打趴下”了。被大量涌入的廉价中国商品冲走的西方制造商不会更换机械设备并重新开张。近来,中国面临的唯一竞争对手来自其他发展中国家。人民币升值的主要受益者不会是美欧公司,而是越南和孟加拉国的工厂。从短期看,人民币汇率急剧走强只会导致美国的棒球帽和耐克鞋价格上涨。与此同时,大部分电子产品的零部件主要在日本、韩国和台湾生产,然后在中国大陆组装,而且成本非常低廉。
Appreciation of the renminbi is unlikely to inject vitality into US and European manufacturers and empower them to deal with smart Chinese rivals. They have been “hit the ground”. Western manufacturers swept away by the influx of cheaper Chinese goods will not change their machinery and reopen. Recently, China has faced only competitors from other developing countries. The main beneficiaries of the RMB appreciation will not be the United States and Europe companies, but Vietnam and Bangladesh factories. In the short run, a sharp rise in the renminbi exchange rate will only result in higher prices for baseball caps and Nike shoes in the United States. At the same time, most of the electronics components are mainly produced in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, then assembled in mainland China, and the cost is very low.