利用具有线形特征的信号流图理论中的梅森公式来计算维修 GERT 网络中各节点之间的传递关系,并利用矩母函数的基本性质来计算电厂维修实例中费用和时间的概率分布数字特征,从而得到描述电厂维修风险的解析解。 The Mason formula in the signal flow graph theory with linear feature is used to calculate the transfer relationship between nodes in the maintenance GERT network. The basic properties of the moment function are used to calculate the probability distribution of the cost and time in the power plant maintenance example. Thus an analytical solution describing the risk of plant maintenance can be obtained.