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我国生鲜乳价格波动剧烈,为了解其波动规律,选取2007年5月~2011年12月的生鲜乳收购价格月度数据为样本,运用X12季节调整法和H-P滤波法对生鲜乳价格波动周期进行实证分析。结果表明,在所选时间段内,生鲜乳价格经历三个波动周期,波动幅度有较大差别,第一个周期的波动主要是受到来自外部的冲击,促使价格大幅度波动,生鲜乳价格的不稳定直接影响奶农的利益。
The price of fresh milk in our country fluctuated violently. In order to understand its fluctuation law, monthly price of fresh milk purchased from May 2007 to December 2011 was selected as the sample. The price of raw milk was fluctuated by X12 season adjustment method and HP filter method Cycle of empirical analysis. The results showed that during the selected period, the price of fresh milk went through three cycles and the fluctuation range was quite different. The fluctuation of the first cycle was mainly from the external shock, which caused the price to fluctuate sharply. The fresh milk Price instability directly affects dairy farmers’ interests.