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实现准确的地震预报是人们长期以来的愿望,是当前地震科研工作的中心课题之一。伍德和古登堡早在1935年就曾指出:要使地震预报有意义,就必须准确地标出未来地震的地区和时间。60年代以来各国开始日益重视探索地震预报方法;进入到70年代以来,国外地震工作者和有关学者开始意识到地震预报的社会代价问题。美国的哈斯(J.E.Haas)和米莱蒂(D.S.Mileti)认为,两年或两年以上的预报时间带来的经济损失和一次地震本身引起的损失或许相当。
It is one of people’s long-term aspiration to realize accurate earthquake prediction and is one of the central topics in the current earthquake research. As early as 1935, Wood and Gutenberg pointed out that to make the earthquake prediction meaningful, the area and time of the future earthquake must be accurately marked. Since the 1960s, all countries began to pay more attention to the exploration of earthquake prediction methods. Since the 1970s, foreign earthquake workers and scholars have come to realize the social cost of earthquake prediction. J.E. Haas and D. S. Mileti of the United States believe that the economic losses caused by forecasts of two or more years may be as much as the losses caused by an earthquake.