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旅游需求预测研究一直是旅游学研究的一个重要课题。本文尝试用人工神经网络模型的 3层BP模型来仿真模拟国际入境旅游需求 ,并以日本对香港的国际旅游需求为例进行模型验证。其输入层结点为SP、FR、POP、GDE、AH、MK ,游客量为输出节点 ,得出 3层前馈反向传播神经网络模型。最后将模拟结果与目前常用的几种模型利用相同的数据源进行模拟的结果进行对比 ,最后发现人工神经网络模型的模拟结果与实际情况最为逼近。
Tourism demand forecasting research has always been an important issue in tourism research. This paper attempts to simulate the demand of international inbound tourism by using the 3-layer BP model of artificial neural network model and takes the Japan’s demand for international tourism in Hong Kong as an example to verify the model. The nodes of the input layer are SP, FR, POP, GDE, AH, MK, and the number of tourists is the output node. The 3-layer feedforward back propagation neural network model is obtained. Finally, the simulation results are compared with the results of several commonly used models using the same data source. Finally, the simulation results of the artificial neural network model are found to be the most approximate to the actual situation.