一、引言七十年代以来,在太平洋的海水温度(以下简称海温)与降水相关研究方面,揭示了不少有预报意义的事实,为旱涝的长期预报提供了新依据。1975年,我们对南海的海温与降水关系进行了初步分析,并作了用冬季海温预报珠海、惠阳等县台站前汛期降水量的试验。当时,用于相关分析的降水资料仅选6个台站,定出的海温-降水相关区范围十分笼统。为了更有效地利用海温进行长期降水预报,现根据1961—1980年资料,通过相关普查,给出了 I. INTRODUCTION Since the 1970s, there have been many facts about the significance of the forecast in the Pacific Ocean’s seawater temperature (hereinafter referred to as SST) and precipitation, providing a new basis for the long-term forecast of drought and flood. In 1975, we carried out a preliminary analysis of the relationship between SST in the South China Sea and precipitation, and made a trial of using winter SST to forecast precipitation in the pre-flood season of Zhuhai and Huiyang counties. At that time, only 6 stations were selected for the precipitation data for correlation analysis, and the range of the SST-related areas was very general. In order to make more effective use of SST for long-term precipitation forecasting, based on the data from 1961-1980,