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通过引入“成本发现”分析框架,本文首先构建了一个两部门经济增长模型,在论证了地区出口技术内涵的提升通过促进该地区技术生产率的进步,进而驱动产业结构转型升级这一理论机制的基础上,考察了我国省域出口技术复杂度对产业结构变动的影响。利用我国2002-2012年间的省际面板数据,本文对地区的产业结构演变状况和出口技术复杂度展开测算,继而运用系统广义矩估计方法 (SYS-GMM)进行实证检验。研究表明,地区出口技术复杂度的提升有助于促进该地区沿着产业结构合理化和高级化的轨迹演进,这与理论模型的预期相契合。具体而言,省际的出口技术复杂度每提高1个单位,可使产业结构合理化程度和产业结构高级化程度分别提高0.278-0.865、0.0846-0.171个单位。根据上述发现,本文最后提出了通过优化我国省域的出口技术结构这一途径来助推我国产业结构转型升级的对策建议。
Through the introduction of “cost discovery ” analysis framework, this paper first builds a two-sector economic growth model to demonstrate the improvement of regional export technology through the promotion of technological productivity in the region, and thus promote the theoretical mechanism of industrial restructuring and upgrading On the basis of examining the impact of the technical complexity of the export of our country’s provinces on the changes in industrial structure. Using the inter-provincial panel data from 2002 to 2012 in our country, this paper estimates the evolution of industrial structure and the technical complexity of export in our country, and then uses the system generalized moment estimation method (SYS-GMM) to test. The research shows that the increase of technical complexity of regional exports helps to promote the evolution of the region along the track of rationalization and advancement of industrial structure, which is in line with the expectation of the theoretical model. Specifically, the increase in the complexity of export technologies across the province by 1 unit will result in an increase of 0.278-0.865 and 0.04646-0.171 units in terms of the rationalization of industrial structure and the high degree of industrial structure. Based on the above findings, the paper finally put forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to boost the transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial structure by optimizing the export technology structure in China’s provincial areas.