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施工进度仿真是高拱坝施工进度控制的重要手段。当前高拱坝施工进度仿真分析中,仿真施工参数基本都是根据施工经验参考近似工程选取。然而不同工程之间施工参数差距较大,可能导致仿真计算结果的失真。针对以上问题,本研究提出基于贝叶斯更新理论,根据现场实际施工信息,实时更新仿真施工参数,以进行仿真计算分析。然而贝叶斯更新过程需要大量精确的统计数据,在实际工程中,由于人为及机器等多种因素,收集到的数据往往不够充分且不够精确。为此,本文将改进重抽样(Bootstrap)方法引入到贝叶斯更新中,提高了样本数据的代表性,使得样本统计参数的估计值更为准确。仿真分析结果表明,相比于传统方法,采用本文提出的施工参数实时更新方法,可以提高仿真参数精度。
Construction schedule simulation is an important means of high arch dam construction schedule control. In the current simulation analysis of high arch dam construction progress, the simulation construction parameters are basically selected based on the construction experience reference approximate project. However, the difference of construction parameters between different projects is large, which may lead to the distortion of simulation results. In view of the above problems, this study proposed based on Bayesian update theory, according to the actual construction site information, real-time updates of the simulation parameters to simulate the construction and analysis. However, the Bayesian update process requires a large amount of accurate statistics. In practical projects, due to a variety of factors, such as man-machine and machine, the data collected are often inadequate and not accurate enough. Therefore, in this paper, the improved Bootstrap method is introduced into the Bayesian update, which improves the representativeness of the sample data and makes the estimation of the sample statistical parameters more accurate. Simulation results show that, compared with the traditional method, the real-time updating of construction parameters proposed in this paper can improve the accuracy of simulation parameters.