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利用1961—2008年的气象-水文资料,探讨了气候变化与叶尔羌河流域冰川湖突发洪水的关系.采用非参数Wilcoxon统计检验和Kendall的τ关联检验分析温度、降水变化与洪峰流量量变化的关联性和一致性;用Mann-Kendall法对气温、降水和洪峰流量>4000 m3.s-1突发性洪水的0℃层高度进行突变检验和趋势分析.结果表明:流域气温在1995年发生突变,且对冰川湖突发洪水发生起主导作用;降水突变不明显,对冰川湖突发洪水发生只起促进作用.自1880年以来,冰川湖突发洪水发生频率增加,与流域气温变化一致.1994年以来气温呈直线上升,洪水频率也呈显著增加趋势;冰川湖突发洪水发生频率与降水变化关系不明显;突发性洪水发生与其前8 d的0℃层高度显著上升密切相关.
Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1961 to 2008, the relationship between climate change and the glacial lake flood in the Yarkant River Basin was discussed.The correlation between temperature and precipitation and the change of flood peak flow volume was analyzed by the non-parametric Wilcoxon test and the Kendall’s τ-correlation test The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the temperature and precipitation and the 0 ℃ layer height of sudden flood with flood peak flow> 4000 m3.s-1. The results showed that the temperature of the basin changed suddenly in 1995 , And played a leading role in the sudden flood of glacial lake; the sudden change of precipitation was not obvious, which only played a catalytic role in the sudden flood of glacial lake. Since 1880, the frequency of sudden flood in glacial lake increased, which is consistent with the change of temperature in the basin. The temperature has risen linearly since 1994, and the frequency of floods also increased significantly. The frequency of sudden flood in glacial lake was not related to the change of precipitation. The occurrence of sudden flood was closely related to the significant rise of 0 ℃ in the first 8 days.