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作者在多层砌体房屋震害预测中,以墙体抗震强度系数K为基本指标,采用二次判别准则估计分类单体房屋平均震害指数N,建立了各烈度下K-N线性关系式,在假定N服从正态分布条件下,阐述了使用微机版本的通用数据库管理系统,进行城市多层砌体房屋总体震害预测的概率-数据库方法。并以上海市多层砌体房屋为预测对象举例,证实了方法是简便适用的,有利于城市抗震防灾基础工作的普及和管理工作的现代化。该方法同样适用于其他类型房屋的总体预测。
In the earthquake damage prediction of multi-story masonry buildings, the author uses the wall seismic strength coefficient K as the basic index, and uses the quadratic criterion to estimate the average earthquake damage index N for the singleton housing, and establishes the linear relationship of KN at each intensity. Under the assumption that N obeys the normal distribution condition, the probabilistic-database method for forecasting earthquake damage of urban multi-story masonry buildings using a microcomputer-based general database management system is described. Taking Shanghai multi-story masonry houses as examples for prediction, it is proved that the method is simple and applicable, which is conducive to the popularization of the basic work of earthquake prevention and disaster prevention in cities and the modernization of management work. This method is also applicable to the overall prediction of other types of houses.