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目的探讨莒南县肾综合征出血热(HFRS)病例时空分布特点。方法对莒南县HFRS时空分布进行概率模型分析。结果莒南县HFRS病例的时间分布和空间分布皆不符合泊松分布(χ2=38.44,P<0.05;χ2=138.58,P<0.05),而服从于负二项分布(χ2=2.81,P>0.05;χ2=2.96,P>0.05),说明二者存在聚集性。高峰时点在4月21日,发病高峰期在2月10日至6月25日;空间分布主要集中在该县西部平原地带。结论要做好重点区域和关键季节HFRS的防治。
Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Junan County. Methods The probabilistic model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of HFRS in Juonan County. Results The time distribution and spatial distribution of HFRS in Junan County were not consistent with Poisson distribution (χ2 = 38.44, P <0.05; χ2 = 138.58, P <0.05) 0.05; χ2 = 2.96, P> 0.05), indicating that the two exist aggregation. The peak time was on April 21, and the peak incidence peak was on February 10 to June 25; the spatial distribution was mainly concentrated in the western plain of the county. Conclusion The prevention and cure of HFRS in key areas and key seasons should be done.