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目的分析淮河流域疟疾流行的空间分布特征,为疟疾防控提供依据。方法运用克立格空间插值法,分析不同地区疟疾发病率的空间自相关性,构建变异函数,制作淮河流域不同区域尺度(县、乡)疟疾流行的空间分布图;比较不同年份空间分布特征的变化观察疟疾流行的态势,推测下一年疟疾流行的可能趋势。结果流域不同地区疟疾发病率存在空间自相关性,制作的空间分布图显示:流域东北部是疟疾的相对高发区,从2004至2006年,疟疾的流行强度增加,流行范围扩大。发病率大于1/万的流行区呈现出以墉桥区、固镇县、蒙城县为中心,向西、南方向蔓延,发病率大于10/万的乡呈现出流行范围由局部区域向西、北和东3个方向蔓延之势。结论淮河流域疟疾的流行总体上仍处于上升阶段,疟防形势较为严峻。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of malaria epidemic in the Huaihe River Basin and provide the basis for malaria control. Methods The spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence in different regions was analyzed by using Kriging interpolation method. The variance function was constructed to make a spatial distribution map of malaria prevalence in different regions (counties and townships) in the Huaihe River Basin. Comparing the spatial distribution characteristics of different years The changes observed the state of the malaria epidemic and speculated on the possible next malaria epidemic. Results The spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence in different regions of the basin showed that the distribution of malaria in the northeastern part of the basin was relatively high incidence of malaria. From 2004 to 2006, the epidemic intensity of malaria increased and its epidemic scope expanded. The epidemic areas with a prevalence of over 1 / 10,000 showed a prevalence of over 10% per 10,000 in the towns of Baqiao, Guzhen and Mengcheng, spreading to the west and south. The prevalence ranges from partial to west North and East 3 direction of the spread of the trend. Conclusion The prevalence of malaria in Huaihe River Basin is still on the rise in general, and the situation of malaria prevention is more serious.