世界经济充满了太多的变数,互动关系错综复杂,因此,人们对世界经济形势走向往往难以作出正确的判断和预测。国内外经济学家年初对１９９９年世界经济发展趋势大体有两种观点,有人认为１９９９年世界经济增长率将低于１９９８年,甚至不能排除发生全球经济衰退的可能性;有人则认 The world economy is full of too many variables and the interactive relations are complex. Therefore, it is often difficult for people to make correct judgments and forecasts on the trend of the world economy. Economists at home and abroad earlier this year held two broad perspectives on the trend of world economic development in 1999. Some people think that the world economic growth rate in 1999 will be lower than in 1998 and may not even rule out the possibility of a global economic recession;