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建造大坝的社会效益和经济效益可以精确地进行计算,但破坏的代价以及为了尽量降低破坏概率而支出的费用却往往是难以计算的。本文作者探讨了这一问题,并指出只要在概率分析中作出某些简明的限制条件就能使概率分析大大简化而且并不会失掉其真实性。
The social and economic benefits of building a dam can be calculated accurately, but the costs of damage and the costs of minimizing the probability of damage are often difficult to calculate. The author explores this issue and points out that the probability analysis can be greatly simplified without losing its authenticity, provided that some simple constraints are made in probabilistic analysis.