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本文采用WIOD的国际投入产出数据,运用“JN”方法,探讨中国与贸易伙伴在1995-2011年间的增加值贸易的典型特征,研究增加值贸易对经济周期联动的影响。结果发现:(1)增加值率有明显的下降趋势;中国与贸易伙伴的贸易方式差异大,处于不同价值链地位;增加值贸易的相邻关系(proximity)明显;制造业带来的增加值比服务业带来的增加值更大,但制造业单位出口带来的增加值要小于服务业。(2)中国-欧盟、中国-北美在不添加控制变量时,增加值贸易强度对经济周期联动有显著正向影响。中国-东亚的增加值贸易强度对经济周期联动保持显著的负向影响。
This paper uses the international input-output data of WIOD and the “JN ” method to explore the typical characteristics of value-added trade between China and its trading partners from 1995 to 2011 and the impact of value-added trade on the economic cycle. The results showed that: (1) the rate of value added decreased significantly; the trade patterns between China and its trading partners differed greatly and were in different value chain positions; the neighboring relations of value added trade were obvious; the added value brought by manufacturing industry The added value brought by the service industry is larger, but the added value brought by the export of the manufacturing sector is smaller than that of the service industry. (2) China-EU, China-North America When the control variables are not added, the value-added trade intensity has a significant positive impact on the economic cycle linkage. China-East Asia value-added trade intensity has had a significant negative impact on the economic cycle.