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2002年以来经济增长加快的深层次根源,也是一段时期中国经济持续较快增长的原动力,来自三个方面:经济体制改革、经济结构升级和跨国公司战略转移。三大基石未来将影响中国经济加快增长的波动更小、持续时间更长。 2002年开始,国内生产总值增长的亮点在工业生产快速增长。工业生产快速增长的一个重要特点是少数行业发挥的带动作用突出。 当前中国经济的内需正在启动,而且有较强的可持续性,这是未来经济增长的重要基础。与之相对应,由于目前所处的特殊情况,物价上涨的可能性和空间要远小于1992年开始的经济过热,形成大幅度通货膨胀的威胁很小,即使出现物价的明显上升,其程度也将在可以接受的温和水平。 未来政策导向:积极财政政策酌情淡出,稳健货币政策挑调控重担,产业政策作用强化。 综合判断,宏观经济将趋于持续较快增长,物价稳定回升。结合模型预测,预计今明两年经济增长有可能比计划高1-2个百分点,并有低度通胀。 2004年的行业景气将向以下概念倾 斜:装备投资、重化工、出口、消费热点和服务。
The deep roots of accelerating economic growth since 2002 are also the driving force behind the sustained and rapid growth of China’s economy in a period of time. The reform has come from three aspects: the reform of the economic system, the upgrading of the economic structure, and the strategic transfer of multinational corporations. The three cornerstones of the future will affect China’s economy to accelerate the growth of the smaller, longer duration. Since the beginning of 2002, the bright spot in GDP growth has seen rapid growth in industrial production. An important feature of the rapid growth of industrial production is the prominent role played by a few industries. At present, domestic demand in the Chinese economy is starting up and there is a strong sustainability. This is an important foundation for future economic growth. Correspondingly, given the current special circumstances, the possibility and space for price increases are much smaller than the overheating economy started in 1992, posing a threat of substantial inflation. Even with the marked rise in prices, Will be at a moderate level of acceptance. The future policy orientation: Fiscal policy faded out as appropriate, prudent monetary policy to pick the burden of regulation and control, strengthening the role of industrial policy. Based on a comprehensive assessment, the macroeconomy will tend to grow at a sustained and rapid pace and prices will rise steadily. Combined with the model predictions, it is estimated that the economic growth in the next two years may be 1-2 percentage points higher than planned with low inflation. The business climate in 2004 will be tilted toward the following concepts: equipment investment, heavy chemical industry, exports, consumer hot spots and services.