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模具订单洽谈阶段的交货期报价决策对于模具企业的准时交货率具有非常重要的影响,尤其是受资源限制的可协商交货期订单。针对此类决策问题,提出基于受限资源顺排计划的可协商交货期估计算法,首先确定询价单所需关键资源当前的总负荷,然后通过项目进度演化模型确定交货期初始概率分布及数学期望,最后依据可协商交货期的长短对企业能否获取此新订单的影响程度,采取不同的能力调整措施以提前初始概率分布,从而得到多个由(交货期期望值,采取的能力调整措施)两个元素构成的组合。以企业真实数据为基础的算例结果表明,所建立的算法具有较高的适应性和可行性。
Delivery Order Decision-making on the Mold Order Negotiation Phase has a very important impact on the on-time delivery rate of mold companies, especially resource-limited negotiable delivery orders. In order to solve this kind of decision-making problem, this paper proposes a consultative lead time estimation algorithm based on restricted resources scheduling. First, the current total load of key resources required by the RFQ is determined. Then the initial probability distribution of delivery lead time is determined through the project progress evolution model And mathematic expectation. Finally, according to the influence of the negotiable delivery time on whether the enterprise can acquire the new order, different ability adjustment measures are adopted to preliminarily estimate the initial probability distribution so as to obtain a plurality of factors (delivery expectation, Ability to adjust measures) a combination of two elements. The case study based on the real data of enterprises shows that the proposed algorithm has high adaptability and feasibility.