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为保证制剂的治疗效果,药厂对其所生产的每一种制剂,都必须提出一个可靠的有效期,并将它标明在包装的标签上。这个有效期要在生产过程完成后提出,但此时产品的质量尚未经受时间的考验,只能用预测的办法来确定有效期,这是一个目前尚未完善解决的课题。老产品的有效期只要查考过去的留样观察数据就能够确切可靠的定下来。而新开发的制剂或经过改进的老产品就不能找到这方面的依据。因此研究其预测方法是药剂工作者的一个重大课题。在这方面的工作开展虽已有30多年
In order to ensure the therapeutic effect of the preparation, the pharmaceutical manufacturer must provide a reliable expiration date for each preparation it produces and label it on the package. This period of validity should be put forward after the completion of the production process. However, at this time, the quality of the products has not yet stood the test of time and can only be determined by means of forecasting. This is an issue that has not been solved yet. Validity of the old product as long as the last sample of the observed data can be accurately and reliably set down. Newly developed formulations or improved old products can not find the basis for this. Therefore, the study of its prediction method is a major issue for pharmaceutical workers. Although more than 30 years have passed since its establishment in this area,