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使用水文统计和交叉小波方法对西江流域1961~2005年径流变化特征及其与气象要素的多时间尺度的关联性进行分析。结果表明,径流量总体呈现减少的变化趋势,可能是人类活动引起流域内蒸发和入渗增加,使径流对降水的响应减弱造成的,径流丰枯变化基本与降水的波动相一致。气温对径流的显著作用主要集中在1990~2000年3~5 a周期上,径流对气温变化的响应时间为6~12个月;降水与径流在大部分时频域中呈同相相位变化,其相互作用主要集中在1992~2003年3~4 a和1980~2000年11~12 a周期上;大气环流变化对径流的影响主要集中在1965~1975年2~3 a及1993~2000年3~5 a周期上,对径流的影响可能是通过对区域降水影响实现的,径流对前一次环流变异响应时间为6~12个月,对后一次响应时间较快,时间的差异可能是下垫面的改变引起流域产汇流机制变化造成的。
Using hydrological statistics and cross-wavelet method, this paper analyzes the characteristics of runoff variation in the Xijiang River Basin from 1961 to 2005 and its correlation with the multi-time scales of meteorological elements. The results showed that the overall runoff showed a decreasing trend, which may be caused by the human activities causing evaporation and infiltration in the watershed to reduce the response of runoff to precipitation. The change of runoff abundance and precipitation basically coincided with the fluctuation of precipitation. The significant effect of temperature on runoff is mainly concentrated in the period of 3 ~ 5 years from 1990 to 2000. The response time of runoff to temperature change is 6 ~ 12 months. Precipitation and runoff are in phase with most of the time-frequency domain The interaction mainly concentrated on the period of 3 ~ 4 years from 1992 to 2003 and the period of 11 ~ 12 years from 1980 to 2000. The effects of atmospheric circulation on runoff mainly concentrated in 2 ~ 3 years from 1965 to 1975 and 3 ~ 5 a cycle, the impact on runoff may be achieved through the influence of regional precipitation. The runoff response time to the previous circulation variation is 6 to 12 months, and the latter response time is fast, and the time difference may be the underlying surface Changes caused by changes in the production mechanism of the basin caused by changes.