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为弥补现有风险管理理论中风险可能性测度的不足,并为合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险量化管理提供依据,本文对合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险可能性测度特点进行了分析,并选择了证据理论和主观概率作为合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险可能性测度方法,然后,提出了f(Ai)=Bel(Ai)+|Ai|/|Θ|×[pl(Ai)-Bel(Ai)]作为合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险可能性测度最终模型,最后给出了一个具体的算例。
In order to make up for the deficiency of the measure of the risk possibility in the existing risk management theory and provide the basis for the quantitative management of the trade secret risk caused by the tacit knowledge transfer in the cooperative technology innovation, this paper analyzes the trade secret risk caused by the tacit knowledge transfer in the cooperative technology innovation (Ai) = Bel (Ai) + | (probability of occurrence) is selected as the measure of probability of commercial secrets caused by the transfer of tacit knowledge in cooperative technological innovation. Ai | / | Θ | × [pl (Ai) -Bel (Ai)] as the final model of the possibility of trade secret risk triggered by the transfer of tacit knowledge in cooperative technological innovation. Finally, a concrete example is given.