樊钢认为,今年我国宏观政策的调整已初见效果。明年的发展趋势关键看是否能够保持这样的增长势头,但要做到这一点并不容易。主要的问题来自两方面,一是国际形势不明朗,全球金融泡沫破裂后,美国等一些西方国家的经济能否挺住,对中国,对亚洲经济回升都是有影响的。如果世界经济出现衰退,对我国出口的影响显而易见。二是今天经济增长主要靠国家投资和财政政策的力度,且投 Fan Gang believes that this year’s adjustment of China’s macroeconomic policy has already achieved initial results. The key to the development trend of next year is whether we can maintain such growth momentum, but it is not easy to do this. The main problems come from two aspects. One is the uncertainty in the international situation. After the global financial bubble burst, the economies of some Western countries such as the United States can hold their own. This has an impact on China and the economic recovery in Asia. If the world economy downturn, the impact on China’s exports is obvious. Second, economic growth today mainly depends on the strength of state investment and fiscal policies and investment