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北京大学中国经济研究中心和北京大学卫生政策与管理研究中心的学者海闻、赵忠、王健、侯振刚日前所做的一项推测与分析认为,由于 SARS 的影响,今年中国经济的增长率将在6%-7%之间,比预期低1至2个百分点。分析认为,今年全年的对外旅游收入将减少50%-60%,损失为900亿元。“五一”黄金周取消带来的损失估计为200亿元左右。保守估计全国的国内旅游收入将减少10%,损失500亿元;我国国内外旅游合计损失1400亿元,加上间接影响,对经济的影响总额为2100亿元。分析认为,如果政府采取一系列刺激消费的措施,例如在城市通过住房信贷、汽车信贷的手段促进城市居民消费;采取积极措施启动农村消费市场等,可
Peking University China Center for Economic Research and Peking University Health Policy and Management Research Center scholars Hai Wen, Zhao Zhong, Wang Jian, Hou Zhen Gang recently made a speculation and analysis that due to the impact of SARS, China’s economic growth this year will be Between 6% and 7%, 1 to 2 percentage points below expectations. Analysts believe that this year’s foreign tourism revenue will be reduced by 50% -60%, the loss of 90 billion yuan. “May Day ” Golden Week canceled losses estimated at 20 billion yuan. It is conservatively estimated that the revenue from domestic tourism will be reduced by 10% and the loss will be 50 billion yuan. The total loss of domestic and foreign tourism in China will amount to 140 billion yuan. With the indirect influence, the total impact on the economy will be 210 billion yuan. According to the analysis, if the government adopts a series of measures to stimulate consumption, for example, promoting urban residents’ consumption through means of housing credit and automobile credit in cities, and taking active measures to start rural consumer markets,