经济界一般将经济周期划分为三种类型,即3-4年的短周期,10年左右的中周期和50年左右的长周期。我国2003年GDP增长为9.1％,可以说刚刚走上上升的正途。所以,从短周期波动来看,我国GDP增长正处于扩张期,风险不大;从长周期来看,中国的城市化、工业化和消费结,构升级,构成了经济增长的基础动力,这些驱动力长期存在而且良性互动。 Economic circles generally divide economic cycles into three types, namely short cycles of 3-4 years, medium cycles of 10 years and long cycles of about 50 years. In 2003, China’s GDP grew by 9.1%. It can be said that it has just embarked on the right path of ascension. Therefore, judging from the short-term fluctuations, China’s GDP growth is in an expansion phase with little risk. From a long-term perspective, urbanization, industrialization and consumption in China have escalated to form the basis for economic growth. These drivers Long-term existence and positive interaction.