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二次大战后,世界人口剧增。一些西方学者惶惶不安,惊呼人口面临“危机”,地球很快就有“人口爆炸”之虞。这种论调集中反映在五十年代以来陆续出版的威廉·福特、卡尔·萨克斯、赫兹拉尔和埃里希等人的著作里。1972年出版的埃里希所著《人口爆炸》一书,充满悲观论调,把全球人口增长比喻为行将爆炸的炸弹,好象地球已有人满之患,世界末日就要降临。果真“人口爆炸”是世界人口发展的必然趋势吗?否。纵观战后世界人口发展的动向,可以确有把握地断定,作为世界人口发展的趋势决不是什么“人口爆炸”,而是人类对自身生产愈益自觉地调节和控制。那么,二次大战后世界人口发展有哪些特点呢?可以概括为三句话:两个高峰,三大类型,一个趋势。
World War II, the world population surge. Some Western scholars are in a state of anxiety, exclaiming that the population is facing “a crisis” and that there will soon be a “population explosion” on Earth. This argument has been heavily reflected in the writings of William Ford, Carl Sachs, Hezral, and Erich, published one after another in the 1950s. Ehrlich’s book The Population Explosion, published in 1972, is full of pessimistic arguments that compared global population growth to a bomb that is about to explode. As if the Earth had been overrun, the end of the world would come. Really “population explosion” is the inevitable trend of world population development? No. Looking at the trends in the post-war world population development, we can safely conclude that as the world’s population development trend is by no means a “population explosion,” human beings increasingly regulate and control their own production more and more consciously. So what are the characteristics of world population development after World War II? It can be summed up in three sentences: two peaks, three types and one trend.