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在广义随机空间中直接建立验算点的迭代公式,可以方便地解决含相关随机变量的结构可靠度计算问题。在广义随机空间中推导了一种收敛性较好的验算点迭代公式,并应用于边坡稳定的可靠度分析。针对卡基娃混凝土面板堆石坝地震工况坝坡稳定的可靠度分析表明:(1)由于安全系数法采用的输入参数为确定值,故不能考虑参数随机波动的影响。可靠度分析能够反映参数随机性的影响,这对于深入评估工程安全与抗风险能力是有益的。(2)通过引入条件概率方法考虑地震和坝坡失稳同时发生的概率得到的结构可靠指标将提高,而提高的幅度与地震发生概率的大小有关。(3)堆石非线性强度指标具有正相关性,考虑强度指标的相关性将提高边坡稳定的可靠度。
In the generalized stochastic space, an iterative formula for checking points can be directly established to solve the problem of structural reliability calculation with random variables involved. In the generalized stochastic space, a well-converged checkpoint iteration formula is derived and applied to the reliability analysis of slope stability. According to the reliability analysis of dam slope stability under seismic conditions in Kakiwa concrete faced rockfill dam, it shows that: (1) The influence of random fluctuation of parameters can not be considered because the input parameters adopted by safety factor method are determined values. The reliability analysis can reflect the influence of parameter randomness, which is beneficial for further assessment of engineering safety and anti-risk ability. (2) The reliability index of structure obtained by introducing the conditional probability method considering the simultaneous occurrence of earthquakes and slope instability will increase, and the magnitude of increase is related to the probability of earthquake occurrence. (3) There is a positive correlation between rockfill non-linear strength index and considering the correlation of strength index will improve the reliability of slope stability.