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不同属性农产品的价格形成和波动成因存在差异。本研究采用1965-2013年香蕉、橙子、大米、小麦、棕榈油和大豆油的国际市场年度价格数据,考察了国际农产品长期价格形成与波动的影响因素,并在此基础上分析了各因素对2004年后农产品价格上涨的贡献度。研究结果表明:国际农产品价格在波动中上升,长期上升趋势明显,短期波动剧烈;上期价格是影响农产品当期价格的主要因素,六种农产品上期价格对当期价格均有显著影响,平均影响水平0.5,且对水果的影响最显著;石油价格显著影响植物油和小麦价格,不影响水果价格,原因是油价上升引致谷物、植物油等生物燃料替代能源需求扩张;上期库存对除香蕉外的其他五种农产品价格均有显著影响,对谷物影响最显著,对水果影响最弱;收入、通货膨胀仅分别对水果、谷物价格有影响。在国际农产品价格不断上涨的形势下,为保持国内农产品价格稳定,建议适当提高农产品价格上涨容忍度、增强国内农产品供求信息透明度和加强国内农产品储备。
There are differences in the causes of price formation and fluctuation of agricultural products with different attributes. In this study, annual price data of bananas, oranges, rice, wheat, palm oil and soybean oil in the international market from 1965 to 2013 were used to examine the influencing factors of long-term price formation and volatility of international agricultural products. Based on this analysis, The contribution of agricultural product price increase after 2004. The results show that: the price of international agricultural products fluctuated, the long-term upward trend was obvious and the short-term fluctuations were dramatic. The previous price was the main factor affecting the current price of agricultural products. The previous prices of all six kinds of agricultural products had a significant impact on the current prices, with an average impact level of 0.5. And the most significant impact on the fruit; oil prices significantly affect the price of vegetable oil and wheat, does not affect the price of fruit, because of rising oil prices led to the replacement of cereal, vegetable oil and other biofuels demand for energy expansion; last inventory except bananas other five kinds of agricultural products prices Have the most significant impact on cereals and have the weakest impact on the fruits. Income and inflation only affect the prices of fruits and cereals respectively. Under the situation of rising international agricultural prices, in order to maintain the stability of the prices of domestic agricultural products, it is suggested that the price tolerance of agricultural products should be appropriately increased, the transparency of supply and demand of domestic agricultural products should be enhanced and the reserves of domestic agricultural products strengthened.