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从暴雨洪涝的形成机制入手,考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力等4个因子的综合作用,针对安徽省六安市实际,构建了暴雨洪涝风险评价指标体系。借助ArcGIS 10.0强大的空间分析功能,以30m×30m栅格为评价基本单元,在4个因子空间分布图的基础上,依据层次分析法确定的权重,进行因子叠加分析,得到了暴雨洪涝风险综合评价结果和等级图。结果表明,六安市暴雨洪涝风险明显分为西南、东北两部分,西南大别山地区整体风险水平低于东北部。从县域来看,六安市城区、寿县整体风险水平最高。从自然区域来说,高风险区主要分布在河流沿线、湖泊周边和圩畈区。初步验证表明,风险评价结果符合实际情况,具有较好应用价值。
Starting from the formation mechanism of storm floods, taking into account the comprehensive effects of hazard factors, environmental sensitivity of pregnant disaster, vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, aiming at the actual situation of Lu’an City in Anhui Province, Rainstorm and flood risk assessment index system. With the powerful spatial analysis function of ArcGIS 10.0, taking the 30m × 30m grid as the evaluation basic unit, based on the four spatial distributions of the factors, the factor stack analysis was carried out based on the weights determined by AHP, and the risk of floods and floods was obtained Evaluation results and rating charts. The results show that the risk of flood and flood in Lu’an is obviously divided into two parts: southwest and northeast, while the overall risk level in Dabieshan area in southwest China is lower than that in the northeast. From the county point of view, Lu’an City, Shouxian the highest overall level of risk. From the natural area, the high-risk areas are mainly distributed along the rivers, around the lakes and in the polder areas. Preliminary verification shows that the risk assessment results in line with the actual situation, with good application value.