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史蒂芬·罗奇博士是摩根士丹利添惠公司的董事总经理、首席经济师、全球经济分析部主任,并负责管理公司常驻纽约、伦敦、巴黎、东京和香港的高级经济师。他出版的论著题目广泛,最近的重点在评估生产率、信息技术、通货膨胀和服务行业改组趋势的宏观影响。他的评述在金融报刊中得到广泛引用,著述常见于学术期刊、书籍、国会证词以及《华尔街日报》、《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》和《金融时报》的专栏版面上。他不久以前担任过国家科学院的一个委员会的成员,该委员会刚刚完成了一项关于信息技术对美国服务业绩效产生的影响的研究。1998年10月,研究服务公司First Call将罗奇先生选为世界上最多人读阅其研究报告的分析师。本文是罗奇先生在年末由北京奥美国际公共关系公司组织的来华讲学时接受本刊记者采访时就世界经济走势发表的看法,作为《财经资讯》栏目的年终专稿刊出,以飨读者。
Dr. Stephen Roach is Managing Director, Chief Economist and Director of Global Economic Analysis at Morgan Stanley Tim Hui, and oversees the company’s senior economists based in New York, London, Paris, Tokyo and Hong Kong. He has published a wide range of theses and the recent focus is on assessing the macro-effects of productivity, information technology, inflation and restructuring trends in the service industry. His comments are widely cited in the financial press, which is common in academic journals, books, congressional testimony, and columns on the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, The Washington Post and the Financial Times. He was recently a member of a committee of the National Academy of Sciences that just completed a study on the impact of information technology on the performance of the U.S. service industry. In October 1998, First Call, a research services company, selected Mr. Roach as the world’s most widely read analyst for his research report. This article is published by Roach at the end of the year by the Beijing Ogilvy & Mather international public relations company to learn from China when interviewed by correspondents on the views of the world economic trends published as “Financial Information” column of the year-end feature articles published in order to 飨reader.