最近,在《地震学研究通讯》的“讨论”栏目中,Silver 认为地震预测是不可能的,而 Whiteside 认为地震预测是可能的。地震预测意味着许多事情。传统的地震预测方法至少有3种。在确定性预测中,震前的动态(例如,周边岩石中应力的相互作用)可以被计算(采用任何现有的技术),所以可以在定义较好的窗口内估算未来地震的时间、地点和震级。在统计性预测中,以往的 Recently, in the Discussion section of the Seismological Research Newsletter, Silver believes that earthquake prediction is impossible, and Whiteside believes that earthquake prediction is possible. Earthquake prediction means many things. There are at least three kinds of traditional earthquake prediction methods. In deterministic predictions, the pre-quake dynamics (eg, the stress interactions in the surrounding rock) can be calculated (using any existing technique) so the time, location and future of future earthquakes can be estimated within a well-defined window Magnitude. In statistical prediction, the past