论文部分内容阅读
利用地磁指数Dst和AE以及电离层临界频率foF2,通过分析磁扰期间成分扰动带的赤道向传播以及低纬穿透电场引起的等离子体漂移对电离层的影响,同时考虑地方时效应,提出一种提前1小时预报暴时电离层foF2的经验方法,并对2004~2005年10次磁暴期间的预报结果进行检验。结果表明,该方法能较好地预测中低纬电离层暴的演化,甚至能捕捉部分正负相交替出现的扰动,但对部分重复出现的正扰动尚有待改进。方法在磁暴事件中和暴日的平均预报误差低于国际参考电离层(IRI)中用于暴时修正的STORM模型,因而更具有实用性。
By using the geomagnetic index Dst and AE and the ionospheric critical frequency foF2, the influence of plasma drift on the ionosphere due to the equatorial propagation of the component perturbation band and the low-latitude electric field is analyzed. The method of forecasting the stratospheric ionospheric foF2 one hour ahead of schedule was tested, and the forecast results of 10 storms during 2004-2005 were tested. The results show that this method can better predict the evolution of ionospheric storms in the middle and low latitudes, and even capture some disturbances that occur alternately with positive and negative phases. However, the positive perturbations of some recurrences need to be improved. The mean error of the method during storms and the typhoon is lower than the STORM model used for storm correction in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), which makes it more practicable.