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以秦山核电站的钢筋混凝土安全壳为工程背景，分析了结构在地震作用下的可靠度并给出其年破坏概率。安全壳结构模型为壳体有限单元组成的结构系统，系统可靠度分析的稳定构形法（简称ＳＣＡ）被用来求结构系统的破坏概率。通过随机振动分析，将结构所受地震作用等效为沿壳体分布的静态力。单元极限状态分别考虑混凝土压碎和钢筋屈服两种情况。最后的数值结果证明秦山核电站安全壳具有足够的抗震安全性。
Taking the reinforced concrete containment of Qinshan Nuclear Power Station as the engineering background, the reliability of the structure under earthquake action is analyzed and its annual failure probability is given. The containment structure model is a structural system composed of shell finite elements. The stable configuration method (SCA) of the system reliability analysis is used to determine the probability of failure of the structural system. Through the random vibration analysis, the seismic effect of the structure is equivalent to the static force distributed along the shell. The unit ultimate state considers the concrete crushing and the steel yielding respectively. The final numerical results show that Qinshan Nuclear Power Station containment has sufficient seismic safety.