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2004年中国消费品市场价格水平的快速上涨,既是2003年价格走势的延续,又在波及范围、城乡结构、地域结构和商品结构等方面表现出了一些异乎往年的特点。本文从价格上涨的动力机制、传导机制和制约机制三个方面,深入阐释了2004年价格走势特点的内在机理,并对2005年我国消费品市场的价格走势做出了全面预测。在预测基础上,提出了2005年政府价格调控政策应突出的两大主题:切实关注低收入阶层生活水平;警惕通货膨胀和通货紧缩。
The rapid rise of the price level of China’s consumer goods market in 2004 was not only the continuation of the price trend in 2003 but also showed some characteristics of the past years in terms of its coverage, urban-rural structure, geographical structure and commodity structure. In this paper, the intrinsic mechanism of the characteristics of the price movements in 2004 is expounded in depth from three aspects: the motivation mechanism, conduction mechanism and control mechanism of the price rise. The article forecasts the price trend of China’s consumer goods market in 2005 in an all-round way. On the basis of the forecast, two major topics that should be highlighted in the government price control policy in 2005 are put forward: earnestly paying attention to the standard of living of the low-income groups; and vigilance against inflation and deflation.