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通过对大量历史资料的整理和计算,对公元1700-1949年渭南地区洪涝灾害进行空间规模、地域差异分析;借助红噪声分析软件Redfit35,对公元1700-1949年渭南地区洪涝灾害的发生周期进行了研究。结果表明:公元1700-1949年渭南地区以较小规模、危害较轻的洪涝灾害为主,占灾害记录总数的82.9%,较大规模、危害较重的洪涝灾害较少发生,占灾害记录总数的7.7%。公元1700-1949年250年的时段可以分为六个洪涝灾害发生阶段:公元1710-1735年、公元1790-1799年、公元1828-1837年为无洪涝灾害或极少洪涝灾害发生阶段,公元1736-1789年、公元1800-1827年、1838-1949年为洪涝灾害多发阶段。洪涝灾害发生频次具有空间差异,十个县市发生洪涝灾害频次由多到少依次为:华县、大荔、华阴、渭南、潼关、韩城、富平、蒲城、澄城、合阳。地区间洪涝灾害发生几率最大相差23%左右,空间差异较大。渭南地区洪涝灾害发生具有明显的时间周期性,其中11.9年周期可以对应于太阳黑子活动的准11年周期,5.1年、2.6年周期可以对应于低纬海洋-大气活动(ENSO)2-7年周期,说明该地区洪涝灾害的发生与太阳黑子活动和低纬海洋-大气活动之间存在着某种联系。
Through the collation and calculation of a large amount of historical data, the spatial scale and regional differences of flood disasters in Weinan area from 1700 to 1949 AD were analyzed. With the aid of red noise analysis software Redfit35, the occurrence period of flood disasters in Weinan area from 1700 to 1949 AD the study. The results show that the small-scale and less harmful floods in Weinan region from 1700 to 1949 AD accounted for 82.9% of the total number of disasters, and the larger-scale and more severe floods occurred less frequently, accounting for the total number of disaster records Of 7.7%. The period of 250 years from 1700 to 1949 can be divided into six stages of flood disasters: AD 1710-1735, AD 1790-1799, AD 1828-1837 periods without flood disasters or infrequent floods, AD 1736 - In 1789, 1800-1827, 1838-1949 were flood-prone stages. There were spatial differences in the frequency of floods. The frequency of floods and floods in ten counties was as follows: Huaxian, Dali, Huayin, Weinan, Tongguan, Hancheng, Fuping, Pucheng, Chengcheng and Heyang. The probability of occurrence of flood and waterlogging disasters in different regions is about 23%, with a big difference in space. The 11.9 year period can correspond to the quasi-11-year period of sunspot activity, and the 5.1 year and 2.6 year period can correspond to the low-latitude ocean-atmosphere activity (ENSO) 2-7 years Period, indicating that there is a connection between the occurrence of flooding in the area and sunspot activities and low-latitude ocean-atmosphere activities.