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全球经常账户失衡问题在2006年达到顶峰,在此后八年中这一问题有了一定程度改善,并且现在看来这一向好趋势预计还能维持一段时间。但是全球失衡问题在流量层面的好转依旧无法掩盖一个事实,那就是从存量层面看,失衡问题仍在进一步恶化。目前一些大的净债务国仍面临由市场信心丧失和利率上升带来的可能风险。未来要从根本上解决失衡问题需要在需求面有一次全球性的调整。
The global current account imbalance peaked in 2006, improving to some extent in the next eight years and it now seems that this upward trend is expected to remain for some time. However, the improvement of the global imbalances at the traffic level still can not hide the fact that from the stock level, imbalances are still worsening. At present, some large net debtor countries still face the risk of loss of market confidence and rising interest rates. The fundamental solution to the imbalance in the future needs a global adjustment in the demand side.