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经济波动实际上就是各个产业波动的综合效果。本文拟由产业入手,探讨各产业波动与经济波动的相关性、经济波动过程中各产业波动的特点以及推动经济波动的产业来源。研究表明:(1)重工业景气波动主导宏观经济景气波动。(2)各行业波动幅度均大于GDP波动幅度,说明行业间波动相关性各异,存在“风险分散”效应。各产业的经济效益比总产出更易波动。(3)各产业的增加值、总产值与当期经济景气波动的相关性不强,但中长期比短期表现出更好的相关性;各产业价格指数、固定资产投资增长率与全国的相应指标之间表现出较强的相关性。(4)冶金工业、建筑材料及其他非金属矿工业、建筑业始终是推动景气波动的主要产业,制造业在最近一个经济周期中开始起作用。
Economic fluctuation is actually the comprehensive effect of fluctuations in various industries. This article intends to start with the industry, to explore the correlation between fluctuations in various industries and economic fluctuations, the characteristics of the fluctuations of various industries in the process of economic fluctuations and the source of industries to promote economic fluctuations. The research shows that: (1) The fluctuation of heavy industry boom dominates the macro economy. (2) The volatility of all industries is greater than the fluctuation of GDP, which shows that the volatility of the industry is different and there is a “risk diversification” effect. The economic benefits of all industries are more volatile than the total output. (3) The correlation between the added value and output value of various industries and the current economic climate fluctuations is not strong, but the medium and long term shows better correlation than the short term; the price index of various industries, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets and the corresponding indicators of the whole country Showed a strong correlation between. (4) Metallurgical industry, building materials and other non-metallic mining industry, construction industry has always been to promote the main industry volatility, manufacturing in the recent economic cycle began to play a role.