托夫勒在《第三次浪潮》一书中,谈到工业文明犹如夕阳西沉,而在对高技术产业的憧憬中则把一系列传统产业称为“夕阳产业”,认为会趋于消亡。其实,对传统产业以“夕阳产业”一言以蔽之是不科学的。在知识经济中,大多数传统产业仍然是基础产业,如农业、矿业、传统工具的运输业都不会消亡。但从总体上来说,传统产业在国民经济中的地位,如以占 GDP 的比例统计,则必然降低,从业人数也必然 In his book The Third Wave, Toffler talked about industrial civilization as a sunset, while in the longing for high-tech industries, he called a series of traditional industries “sunset industries,” thinking that they would tend to die out . In fact, the traditional industries to “sunset industry” in a nutshell is unscientific. In the knowledge-based economy, most traditional industries remain the basic industries, and the transport industries such as agriculture, mining and traditional tools will not die out. However, on the whole, the position of traditional industries in the national economy, as measured by the ratio of GDP, is bound to decrease, and the number of employees must also be inevitable