稻瘟病是影响江西省水稻产量的最大因素之一,如能提前一年或几年对病害的发生趋势和流行程度作出预测,对于稻瘟病的综合防治,对于农业生产的决策管理,无疑都是非常重要的。本文运用了马尔可夫链方法对婺源县稻瘟病的预测进行了探讨。根据1963至1987年的婺源县早稻稻瘟病的发病资料,将历年病情分为轻病年(1级)、中病年(2级)和重病年(3级),如表1。 Rice blast is one of the most important factors affecting rice yield in Jiangxi Province. If the disease trend and prevalence can be predicted one year or a year in advance, there is no doubt that for the comprehensive prevention and control of rice blast and the decision-making management of agricultural production very important. In this paper, the Markov chain method was used to predict the rice blast in Wuyuan County. According to the incidence data of early rice blast in Wuyuan County from 1963 to 1987, the past years were divided into mild disease (grade 1), intermediate disease (grade 2) and severe disease (grade 3).